Ventures of an ex indie game developer

High and low risk

Overly high risk is no good. Knew that. Now I know that in a more concrete sense.

So this time around I devised a separation of a truly low risk version as well as a high risk instance. Put 10% in the high risk fund, and the remaining 90% in the other. Already after two weeks it's obvious that high risk is good for profit, provided you don't get rekt.


In this pace, assuming B doesn't get rekt in the meanwhile, how long time will it take to catch up with A?

Well, A is up by 1.42937113362935% and B 3.34461425929646% in 12.958499016203703 days. That means A has an average gain of 0.1095828631407% per day, while B's growth is 0.25420215990337% a day.

\[\left\{ \begin{array}{} \text{d = number of days elapsed}\\ a_0 = 9b_0 \\ a = a_0 \cdot 1.001095828631407^d \\ b = b_0 \cdot 1.0025420215990337^d \end{array} \right.\]

And we solve this equation:

\[9b_0 \cdot 1.001095828631407^d = b_0 \cdot 1.0025420215990337^d \\ \text{ } \\ d = \frac{\ln{9}}{\ln{1.0025420215990337} -\ln{1.001095828631407}}\]

which gets us somewhere in the vicinity of 1522 days, or four years and two months. It will however be much, much faster than that, since maximum gain is reached in the extremes which happens once every month or so. The real number is probably closer to one year. And B will also get rekt a number of times, so it's important to transfer the proceeds into A on a regular basis. The question is just when.

About the author

Mitt foto
Gothenburg, Sweden