Trial and Epic Fail

Ventures of an ex indie game developer

Crypto trading status

BitForex aims to be first man in the race to the bottom. By allowing maker trades at zero fees, they've grown massively. My simulation tells me I should be able to make 60% more profit per year if I could execute the same trades using them instead of Binance (which have a 0.1% maker fee). It's not impossible, but BitForex is still small fish in the alt-coin market, so I'll stick with high quality, large quantity and good stability for now. (Besides, BitForex is super-Chinese, with lousy API and old-fashioned instruments;  it wouldn't surprise me if they're hacked.)

On the other hand, I took a stab at implementing RSI deviation-recognition, which proved very simple. That change alone earns me 40% more profit per year.
I've probably done my last AI experiments. For the most straight-forward solutions, such as those convolutional and LSTM I tried, it's not possible to cross the 60% accuracy border. For any coin on any time-period. The price pattern is fractal with regards to time, so it might be possible to mix different time periods and get something from that, but on the other hand, that could be said about a hundred different ideas as well.

The ANN solution looks very tempting for a rational engineer, as there are no fixed borders in finance. But I've realized a couple of things that makes me trust more in 30 hard hand-written rules, than fuzzy logic. First and foremost, the patterns never repeat themselves. Sometimes they come close, often they do not. Secondly, the best indicators are developed by highly intelligent and successful senior researchers and traders. By definition, they are hard to beat. Connors RSI, for instance, took decades to develop and refine.

So instead of throwing everything at a set of weights, I use a combination of indicators, which I tweak using a dumb optimizer. I should implement something like the Adam optimizer used in ANN's, but it's currently working too well for me to make the effort.

The hard part for me is trying to cram in as many good indicators and thresholds as I can, while keeping the code clean.

Finally, this project is coming to an end. It might be possible to live off of the passive income it will produce. Since January, when everything crashed, I'm behind 60%. You'd think that would make me a pessimist, but not me. :)

Anyway, somewhere between beginning of October and end of November 2018, big things are going to happen to the cryptocurrency finance world. My guess is a huge drop in price in mid-October. Then a bull market again in 2019.

A society in free fall

The first 8 months of this year, Sweden handed out permit to stay to immigrants, in what corresponds to 1% of the population. So this year alone, the population will increase by 1.5% or so. I can't figure out if I should vote for The Sweden Democrats, which will become the largest party and wants to temporarily stop immigration; or Alternative for Sweden, which wants to send murderers, rapists and criminals back to the countries from whence they came.

Both parties are of course called "racist."

The choice for any sane person (or foreigner) seems obvious, but the problem is AfS is probably too small to make it into the parliament. SD will be the biggest party, and I hope they'll get some influence, although the other seven parties in the parliament currently refuse to cooperate with them.

The politicians have screwed us over so badly; unfortunately the older generation which still listens to PK media still doesn't get this. And even when they understand, it will have gone even further. 28%, sorry 29%, of the Swedish population is made up of immigrants. How far will we allow it to go before we're forced to do something about it?

Some people speak of civil war in the future. It's not unthinkable. For what? Not telling the truth, hiding the facts. In Norway they despise "the Swedish condition," in Denmark they say "the Swedish problem," the Fins think mass immigration to Sweden might pose a bigger threat than Russia. I so wish I would have realized the lies earlier. The next best think is to see and address the problems a quickly and bluntly as we can. So would a vote on AfS hurry or delay the change that needs to happen? I really can't tell.

Repeating mistakes

I had another go with AI for BitCoin prediction. Turns out it's only able to predict 5% better than chance, which is entirely useless. So it's back to the drawing table, using StochRSI and similar measures to try and extract some kind of future of this psychological randomness.

The question still remains: if no weighted correlation on price/volume can grasp where the market is going to go, is it even possible to make money of off this? I still think it is. Eldorado is out there somewhere, I just need to figure it out...

Side-tracked again

I want to do my own plots to evaluate the performance of my algorithms, but the state of affairs in financial plotting in Python is very bad. If you want candlesticks and volume bar charts with hundreds of thousands of ticks, you're going to have to pay in performance if you use the scares available alternatives.

So I reinvented the wheel once more. Just my cup of tea. So I built a component on top of pyqtgraph (which to my surprise was both well-written and performant) to draw the charts, handle the proper zooming, share the X-axis between plots, deferred rendering during zooming/panning and all of this with a clean API and good defaults. It turned out really good, and I named it finplot.
It's only lacking one feature that I need: to be able to click a point in time to see what rules affected that decision to buy, sell, hodl or wait. The purpose is debugging. Right now I'm working on a completely different track and I want to see which of my two dozen rules need tweaking.

Even though I thought I went off the rails again for two days, this side track was actually pretty good. I really needed both volume and candlesticks en masse, along with my own generated markers, etc.

So far my trading up until now has been shit all along. I'm down by 58% since December. (Market's down by 68%.) I wrongly assumed it was possible to use simple close price statistics over time to be profitable. I should have known better, but naïve as always and it never pays.

I've learned my lesson, studied some and think I'm on to something much better. So far I've only evaluated buying, which is much easier than selling, as a missed buy opportunity doesn't hurt my wallet (only my future excessive spending).

If you feel like one sneak peak at Bitcoin plotting, my whole example is less than 25 lines and sets you up for everything you need to start hacking away at your own algorithm. Happy hacking!

I am not alone

It seems Swedes are waking up, according to Ipsos:

Aha. 73% of Swedes think we're headed the wrong way. What could be the reasons for people thinking such nonsense? How about this explanation:

Would that possibly explain any other side-effects such as this:

We, the people, are not hallucinating, although you get that feeling when you listen to the Swedish elite in Stockholm city, who deny that mass immigration costs money long term; causes problem with our welfare state; increase crime; and has a degenerative effect on our society and culture.

The recognition that we, the people, have been withheld the truth is seeping out, and momentum is building pretty fast. We do have an election in a month. That is not good I think. It's too soon. You see, if too few have realized where we're headed in the next month, many will certainly realize it within the next four-year period until the next election.

My main concern with that is that people may think that four years is way too long to start addressing the issue proper. Especially if we get this "open all borders" nut as prime minister. Irritated masses and a disconnect with the elite is a recipe for disaster.

Sweden's next crises is not going to be with nature or Russia. It's going stand between the citizens: the extreme left and the extreme right; the alt-news followers and the public media viewers; the old and the young; the urban and the rural. When the right has won, the hard part will be the half-century long journey back to sanity.

Perhaps the best right now is to hope for re-election. A couple of more months would perhaps sway enough people into the ranks of the Sweden Democrats so that the other parties won't be able to exclude them from immigration politics. Right now, they're at 23-ish% according to polls, but I'm hoping they'll reach 30.

Climate too?!?!?

I looked at an interview with a guy who seemed very knowledgeable about a lot of things, including climate change. He claimed that the current state of affairs is overly alarmist, as the climate changes we humans have contributed to are not as profound as some researchers would have us believe.

I was skeptical, but as usual I was open to the possibility. The best way, I figured, was to check it myself using data from Sweden's institute of meteorology. That way we can be pretty sure the data hasn't been tampered with, as whistle blower and 2014 U.S. Department of Commerce Gold Medal winner John Bates exposed within NOAA in February 2017.

So I wrote a small program, probably took me four hours, which downloads all mean air temperature data from all the SMHI's stations and checks how much the temperature has increased over time.

WTF! The mean air temperature over the last 200 years is near zero! Oh, man. My whole world is upside down. Parapsychology and ufology is real, and probably God too, but climate change and the benefits of immigration are gone! Nobody's going to believe me in Sweden, and I'll be an outcast. FML!

We've been badly deceived

Swedish public media has for a long time enjoyed the highest trust from their viewers. This is changing rapidly, as the population is slowly waking up to realize our high trust in media and the government has been badly misplaced in the last decades. For me personally, this has been and still is a journey I never thought I'd live to see.

The mass immigration as of late is overshadowing all the other problems in Sweden, and as election is held in a month, it's under debate. Due to the horrific social stigma involved with speaking out on these issues, fueled by the media, very few do talk about this frankly. Slowly it's changing though.

I really hope the Sweden democrats take more than 25%, perhaps even 30% this election. They are the only party that talks about this problem openly. Also, I had no knowledge about how corrupt the immigration-friendly politicians were acting, or why.

Here are some numbers on mass immigration to help you get the picture, along with comparison with our neighboring countries.

Part of population of foreign descent

More than one in four is an immigrant in Sweden.

Number of refugees coming to the Nordics

After the crisis in 2015, most Swedish politicians said they enforced a stricter immigration policy. They did not.

Number of murders

Murder rates in all Nordic countries decline. With the exception of Sweden.

Number of hand grenade attacks

All other Nordic countries are at zero. So far, Sweden has only had three hand grenade attacks in 2018.

Percentage of immigrants in Botkyrka

Fewer than 40% Swedes in the municipality of Botkyrka. In Södertälje the immigrant population is more than half too.

Worth noting is that both of the above municipalities incidentally are high in violence and crime.

I'm thinking about building a website for these statistics, as people are lacking a way to compare. The politicians and media is too insincere to be trusted to inform the public earnestly.

If I have time to do more, it will be about drugs, rape and how the Bilderberg group has fueled Sweden's mass immigration by putting our leading politicians under their corrupt pay roll when they leave office. We've been badly deceived, it's time to take the truth back.

About the author

Mitt foto
Gothenburg, Sweden