Trial and Epic Fail

Ventures of an ex indie game developer

Erratic loss

The Bitcoin market is erratic at best, due to a huge influx of retail, plus whale fights. Price is about to drop, but it's hard to say if it's going to be a huge dip, as is normal after a huge spike, or if new whales are going to dampen the fall.

I lost 83% in the process due to a pinch of manual intervention. That was good compared to leaving the bot to itself, in which case it would have lost 93%... Sigh!

Anyway, in a normal BTC market this takes about nine months to regain. But if the market fluctuations will keep on behaving like 2017-18 it could be much faster, seriously like a couple of months. Unfortunately the drop of 2021-01-15T16:00Z looks like it broke the trend. I remain hopeful that the market will keep its composure though.


 If I'm right on this, and I'm 65% sure I am, big news will be announced on this blog soon. The only reason I haven't found this trading strategy earlier, is that it's only useful when whales are out playing. And by God they are now.

Finally turning?

 Accumulation/Distribution is up, On Balance Volume still and price is down. The mandatory January reversal has finally arrived?

Easy come...

Sometimes, just sometimes, I just wish I was more adverse to risk.


 The reversal into trading range occurred a day or two before I had anticipated. One bot lost 0.4 magnitudes, the other 0.15. Ouch! Ordered the high risk one into super high risk again. Want to make up for lost time, right?

Saw The Social Dilemma. Have to make some changes around here. Think I'll use technology to help us along. Probably use a Raspberry Pi as a router, as I can't really find out-of-the-box hardware for ethernet+WiFi+parental control with high granularity.

Verticality inversed?

 Sold off a quarter of my coins, as verticality can't last forever. Weekly chart:

If so, the next step would be to straight up. Or flip over backwards. And without inventing time travel, that seems unlikely. It could still get close to 30k this time, but without a correction I doubt it's going to cross very far into the 30's. I was wrong before, thinking this would go no longer than 23. But now it's no homo, no fomo. At least for a quarter of me.

December flip?

Did the 2020 December flip just show up? One of my bots just went short. If not now, in the next coming week or so. The Bitcoin price usually falls in January, and the fall normally starts at the end of December. I guess Christmas is a good time of the year to freak people out.

Lower price bound is now at 8k. If it goes to 8-8.3 in a few months, anyone with too much in an exchange should transfer a BTC or two into their wallet.

About the author

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Gothenburg, Sweden