Trial and Epic Fail

Ventures of an indie game developer

Da riches

Guess I've spent at least fifty hours writing some code which will eventually become some automated stock trading software. I've found some really awesome trading instruments, and possibly some algorithms too. I need to do further testing, and I'm sure there are confusing bugs everywhere, but thus far it looks like this might be profitable:

The green lines are my top algorithms so far, the reds are the best-performing instruments. I'm pretty sure that a 80,000% yearly interest is just a little bit much and due to some sorry-ass bugs, but the 300% I had set as a minimum is sure to be exceeded. If I can get a big enough profit, I don't care about the Sharpe ratio or risk. In a few weeks I'll know more.

Hao 2 git rich fast

I've been up to no good for too long. While I spent years making shitty games and a stupid game engine at the cost of immense sleep deprivation, relationships and elimination of spare time, a colleague/competitor instead make a good game (and no game engine, surprise!). Obviously he's a lot smarter than I am. Since then he's dug into stock trading, as have so many programmers in the past. Now it's my turn, I neither have time, energy nor finances to build games. So I'll just get rich on algorithmic stock trading myself, even though I think it's just a horrible way to make money as it doesn't contribute to society one bit. But as long as the system's there I'm going to use it for my benefit. Game-wise I'll just let my Apple account expire. My next game will be a computer/console only, my patience has grown extremely thin with casual gaming, touch interfaces and Apple, all of which I loath.

In pursuit of my trading robot, I've gone through the hassle of building some components and an application in Python. From scratch, of course - reinventing the wheel is my cup of tea (otherwise I could have just taken the 100 lines required). It's taken me 20 hours or around there. Now I'll start working on algorithms, the fun part.

I've never been very interested in being rich until now, so this change has taken me aback. I guess I'm mostly tired of shitty jobs with incompetent management. And also I'd like to ensure two things: that I can work on whatever I want, and that I can go on vacation whenever and wherever I want. And although I dislike cars in general, I've become infatuated with Tesla, so I'll get a model S. And pay the mortgage. And refurbish the house. And donate to charitable causes. That kinda shit that the middle class gets off on.

Without knowing jack about trading I'm hoping for a 300%+ yield with a Sharpe ratio of 3+. Will let you know what yields and risk I can push my algorithms into.

Untruths left and right

By now everybody knows Trump can't distinguish fact and fiction, thinks the unemployment rate in the US is 42%, and that the US have a negative GDP. I can't enough recommend John Oliver's entertaining education:

And of course two days ago the half-wit invented a terrorist attack in my home country, Sweden:

His lies are now more a hazard to himself than anyone else, which is fine by me. The reason is of course that his lies are so obvious to every honest onlooker to the point that I feel I can see him make them up as he goes. Self-deception is Trump's only real ally, and although a powerful one, I seriously doubt it could help this imbecile pull through with any real support from educated, smart, sensible republicans.

But Trump is right-wing, racist and equipped with a, shall we say, vacuous brain. Unfortunately self-deception is not restricted to this type of people, and tonight in a heated political discussion with a close fiend I witnessed first hand just how far cognitive dissonance can push someone to not even want to hear any other version than a long-held belief. Alternative facts may more wide-spread than you might think. I don't want to delve into bad news, but let's all stop beating about the bush and be blatantly truthful and speak about the facts:

  • Unfortunately even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. Trump proved that the press is biased, by simply winning the election. Not only the left-wing press is easily misled, mind you.
  • Sweden has a problem with immigration and crime, as an immigrant is 2.5 times more likely to commit a crime. You may argue it's not the immigrants faults, and sure they have a harder time than the natives, but that doesn't change the numbers.
  • As many as every tenth Afghan boy in rural Pashtun areas (middle and northern Afghanistan) may be victims to pedophiles. The practice of "bacha bazi", where poor families sell their sons as sex slaves and status markers to rich warlords, is common. This is an ancient tradition that has picked up speed again after the Talibans' where forced out of power, and the story has been told in numerous documentaries. The Afghan police have a sex slave in every checkpoint and most officers consider it a fringe benefit. Here is a rape case reported, as typically in the mainstream Swedish media, without mentioning the five assailants background, which might seem relevant in this case? Even though convicted for life-threatening and filmed rape, the culprits are not deported since Afghanistan is considered dangerous; but this goes against what many Swedes feel is just treatment. Believing the bacha bazi problem will go away when Afghans cross the border is self-deception. (I note that the problem is even worse in Pakistan, but hardly any refugees come to Sweden.)
  • The Afghan view on women is of course even worse, but then again I have a hard time believing anybody would deny that.
  • In Gothenburg's biggest newspaper we find an uncommonly frank 10-year-old article describing the state for Somalian refugees in Sweden's second largest city. 20% of the adolescent males has been suspected of violent crime! Many of the attackers use a knife on their first felony. Somali men themselves think 10-50% of Somali men are addicted to kat, which fuel apathy and partly explain why 45% of the Somalis have no job and zero income. A lot of the families live off of welfare, and the man often abandon the family or deceive to get more, and the women often making herself unemployable. The youth have poor grades, if any, and lacking both father figures and role models they see little point in studying. This is not going to go away by looking the other way or by "not spreading prejudice."
  • Police, ambulance, firefighters and security guards are often harassed and threatened by gangs in the Swedish suburbs that have a dense immigrant population. Let's take today, a Monday night, as an example, The  police reports a riot in a Stockholm suburb with 7-8 cars burning, a policeman injured by a thrown stone, pillaging of stores, and two assults. Police had to fire warning shots. In a suburb of Eskilstuna three cars were demolished with an axe. In another Eskilstuna suburb a man was stabbed. (As a side-note a burglary happened only 500 meters from my house, earlier an acquaintance of mine who is a  policewoman claimed that eastern European gangs often have been suspected of the many burglaries in the area, but there is no way to be sure as only 4% of burglaries are resolved in Sweden.) Theft in Frölunda Torg, which is one of the most notorious areas of Gothenburg. A facade in a Stockholm suburb was set ablaze. In another suburb a betting shop was mugged. In two different locations in Södertälje two cars were set on fire and two more damaged, one hour apart. Youth has been throwing stones at passing trains in a Stockholm suburb. To anybody who follows the news, these are not isolated crimes on a special Monday, this is commonplace.
A lot could be said on the topic of unwanted, imported culture, such as the "taharrush" in Cologne, Germany where 1k immigrant men sexually assaulted women around central station, or about the fact that only 75% of immigrant children cope with elementary scool in Sweden. But you get the pickie.

The second largest party in Sweden now is a right-wing party with neo-nazi roots. I want to keep this country to the left of center and along with that solidarity, decency, high taxation, transparency, openness and sticking to the truth. So please, for starters, let's just call out the real facts (not the alternative ones) and not try to hide truths for yourself or anybody else in the name of misguided helpfulness.

Gigantic logic leap toward enlightenment

As I mentioned before I'd intended to try LSD to broaden my mind, in hope to find some spiritual answers there.

Yesterday I tried DMT instead, which I had planned to avoid (before trying Ayahuasca), but eventually gave a shot after having a few beers. So yesterday I had my my first hallucinations (not counting that one time when I didn't eat any food and only drank alcohol four days straight in colleague). Smoking DMT brings you in and out of a high very quickly, everything's more or less over in 10 minutes. Mostly I saw strange patterns, but the feelings were amazing, especially the inexplicable sensations in the body. Or perhaps from the body. But apart from that nothing insightful on my first trip.

I was actually not disappointed though not much came out of it. It was fun, and that was enough for me. Nothing more could be expected as I'd had a few beers before smoking.

But. Today, totally unrelated to my DMT trip, I stumbled upon the last pieces of the puzzle to complete my book. I saw a 10-year old documentary on youtube that filled in my biggest knowledge gaps, especially on the more philosophical aspects of spirituality. Not only do I now have enough information to finish the book, but I also know how I should live my life. That's far too much to wrap up in a post, it will go into my book. Perhaps I'll translate it if it's any good.

Up until this evening I had come to the belief that spiritual things could not be known with logic, only by experience. I don't think that any more (possibly due to the DMT, but the direct effect should be long gone by now if bio-chemistry is to be trusted).

One pretty hopeful conclusion I just came to is that my book might be able to bridge the gap between traditional western science and spirituality better than most, as I'm fairly well versed in the former and have little dogmatic attachment to the latter.

There is dice being played in the Universe. Mm-mm!

Fox News' 0.2%-truths

Reporters, and the rest of us too for that matter, need to be educated in basic statistics and reasoning. Otherwise the output is utter bs. No news should be taken at face value, and I for one will start treating news in economy and sociology as rumors as long as they're not backed by scientists. Same as we would with harder sciences like psycology, ecology, biology, chemistry and physics.

No one should trust a Fox News journalist reporting on physics, and the case for economics is no different in practice.

Post-truth optimism

I've become increasingly cynical since the advent of post-truth, especially after the half-wit bigot with the fox on top got elected.
  • Yes, he is a half-wit since he would be three times as rich if he placed his inheritance in an index fund instead of trying to manage it himself;
  • yes he is a half-wit since he did try to start uni, but - not unlike The Donald Himself - it was full of feelings, but no substance and it has received a whooping 1.3k lawsuits as a result;
  • yes he is a half-wit and a bigot because he doesn't even know about climate change;
  • yes he is a bigot because he builds walls instead of tearing them down and he wants to prevent muslims visiting although "the threat they pose" is only 0.02% compared to that the NRA poses;
  • yes he is a bigot as he doesn't understand the meaning of the word birth certificate;
  • yes he is a bigot because only after he learnt from president Obama what Obamacare actually is, he changed his stance.
It's easy for common sense-people to become utterly tired of the man who obviously has problems with facts. And I'm sure he would have been pleased to got help winning - when you don't know the truth you need all the help you can get. But he's so generously ignorant, he doesn't even realize when he's been helped. Ahhhh... wounderful to get that off my chest.

Putin on the other hand is not beating about the bush either:
Nuclear-ready КУЗНЕЦОВ in a power display through i18n, British, Swedish and Danish waters.

And of course Facebook's not only selling our opinions any more, its machine-powered "news service" strengthens our ignorance. Myself, I quit looking at all news a year ago. The word news has always been another word for what shit has gone down lately. But globalization and ever-increasing distraction has put a spin on both what and lately. There is always something horrible happening, and the attention span to care enough to actually do something (by which I, being a typical westerner, of course mean donate funds) is zero. That's why papers and journalists don't sell any more.

I'll try to drag my ass out of cynicism by simply looking the other way. My goal is to be more ignorant than Trump. Ok, that's unfair. To myself. Nobody could ever become that ignorant unless actually locked away in an asylum.

What I mean is I'll focus on the good news. What's good at work, what's good in the world, the good people. The Elon Musks, Bill Gateses, Dalai Lamas, Nelson Mandelas and Justin Trudeaus.

And at the same time I'll start experimenting with lysergic acid diethylamide, so my already twisted worldview is bound to escalate. I had forgotten how much freedom it meant being a bachelor:

Energy age II

Yes the age is a-commin'. The venerable Professor Parkhomov at the Moscow State University didn't settle with his first E-cat replication. This time he's done a 40-hour replication generating 300 W of excess heat. We're all wishing him good luck with that manly Проект GlowStick of his!

For a true nerd this sure beats playing with your GlowStick.

About the author

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Gothenburg, Sweden