Ventures of an ex indie game developer

Waiting for the future

Before my small trading funds was eaten up by commission last week, the trading robot looked promising. Well, not if you look at the actual dough.


But 250 SEK(Swedish Crowns, equivalent of ~25 EUR/USD) is expected to be consumed by commission. But if I rebase the curve on percentage increase in stock price and a fixed commission, the top curve shows approximately what the result would have looked like if I'd injected 8k SEK.



My actual increase in value over four days between A and B would have been 4.71%. Which is probably, but not certainly, due to luck. 4.71% over four days amounts to over 6000% on a yearly basis. That is highly unrealistic irl.

But I've just injected a bit more cache. Learning money, let's call it. This type of hands-on is a lot better than a theoretical course on the stock market, and probably a lot cheaper too. In a few more days I should know if the robot was just lucky, or if I actually could use it as it is.

My thinking is still that I need to transition to using normal stock (ETFs) to be able to make a profit. And possibly also implement an AI instead of some dumb if-statements. Currently I only use the stock price as input, but I may need to use the volume too to get a good enough estimator. As of yet I hardly understand the workings of a convolutional ANN, and there seems to be a little bit of a theoretical threshold before one can get started on such a venture. For the first time in years I'd have to start digging into documentation. Peuh!

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Gothenburg, Sweden