Ventures of an indie game developer

Yearly yield

I have yet to implement the automated trading, but I have created a simulation of the historical data over the three weeks since I fixed my off-by-one bug. The data set is very small, and it's only showing information from a Swedish hausse, and the risk is very high. That said the yearly yield looks like it's in the range of -81% to +13,857%, with an average of +4,057%.

I'm probably going to start off with a very high risk which will give me a fantastic start, but soon after everything will go to shit and I'll be back to square one (or probably a little bit worse). Then I'll revise my plan, and after a few iterations I know more about what I can expect on a yearly basis. 500%+ doesn't seem overly optimistic, at least not during hausse.

If I land on 500%, I need to inject a minimum of 150kSEK = 16kEUR = 18kUSD to be able to withdraw as little salary as I charge today on a monthly basis. It will be tempting to keep the money sitting there. Just to give you an example. Say the yearly value increase is 500%. That means that investing 100 coins at the beginning of the year will get you 16 new coins in January. But if you save your stash, December will yield 83 coins. If you however wait until December next year, that month alone will yield 500 coins. You can probably see where this is headed.

"Please fill my orifices with The Juice, your highness!"

Worth noting is that somewhere along the line I'll hit a breaking point where I won't be able to procure and sell instruments at the initial rate and price without me affecting the price, but I have no idea where that level is. I'm guessing some of the instruments I'm speculating in is run by small finance institutes (which in turn is bought by trading sites?). Right now it seems like that threshold determines if my current thinking will get me filthy rich, or if I'll just have a better-than average savings account.

About the author

Mitt foto
Gothenburg, Sweden