Ventures of an ex indie game developer

Old, sick, kids and boring code

Have been sick for a few days, threw a birthday party (great success!) and had the kids, so nothing done lately. Tonight, however, I started looking into when to trade (weather to own the instruments overnight) and what types of instruments to trade. I added a filtering function so I'm able to determine how instrument types - or groups thereof - behave over time.

I use a collection of instruments at all times, here the graph shows my picked instruments sliced by type. Obviously I'm very poor at selecting the types "KBU" and "KP." The rest seem like a zero-sum game or better with what little data I have.

The low, hardly visible line at the bottom is KBU, meaning bull contracts. The other line below 100 is KP, which are unlimited turbo shorts. Jeez, can't even read the wikipedia pages. In short, they are high leverage, high risk, where you not only can loose money, but even owe money. If you know what you're doing you could make a lot of dough on them, just look at the last weekend of April for Vontobel's 12x leverage on wheat price going up:


If you bought some of those wheat bull contracts on Friday, April 28, you would have doubled your money by the end of the weekend. But the risk should not to be taken lightly as the instrument has dropped more than 90% in value since February 16 until today.

What does all this mean? It means my robot will neither be trading in bull contracts nor in unlimited turbo shorts. Trading in the classic stock seems to be moving close to index, as can be expected I guess, Next up is to write the completely automated trader, which is both hard and boring. Bad combo. I'll get it done eventually.

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Gothenburg, Sweden