Trial and Epic Fail

Ventures of an ex indie game developer

Crypto is back?

Last month or two, simple trading strats (including my bot) shouldn't have been losing any money. And perhaps the turning point from this stale mate is behind us. We'll need some more confirmation, but it looks like around October 15th, 2023 was the turning point.


Finally! ATM it looks like BTCUSDT futures is the best bet, but usually after a BTC pump we get the shitcoins disipation. S&P500 is down in the last couple of months, but US 10 year bonds yield just broke out, so who knows if this is a fake-out, but either way it probably is going to be a good run either on the bullish or the bearish side.

Driverless Teslas and remote viewing

Tesla's decision to not use any other means than cameras to form a view of the world were predicated on the knowledge that we humans only use our our eyes to do the same.

That view is called materialism, or physicalism, and has been lengthily and completely refuted by science. Btw, that's why the science elite are all into "woo-woo" in times when it's ok to admit it.

Anyway, a small portion of our daily life is probably composed by remote viewing — or better yet — sensing. I'm even guessing a small portion of each moment is composed of remote sensing, just as our other senses each help make up a whole.

I thought Tesla and others would be running self-running cars by now. But it seems like those that use lidar is actually doing better atm., which surprised Musk (and me). And sure, it's easy to make bad predictions in 2015 when 95% is done, and only 5% of the ice berg is remaining. But what if that wasn't it?


Even if a Tesla is able to circumvent all sorts of roadwork in the future, perhaps it will still be worse than humans in some situations. Not because of lack of data. Unique situations happen all the time, and a human who has never experienced it before is usually able to handle it fine. So data is not the issue. Perhaps remote sensing is? Remote sensing the future would be a great way to traverse most obstacles.

Fighter pilots' brains are wired differently than the rest of us. Either this is the physical reason they became fighter pilots, or that wiring helps with remote viewing, which in turn make them better at responding to novel situations in a timely and accurately fashion.

If this is the case for both car drivers and fighter pilots, it will take a long time to replace them with a data-driven design. How long exactly? I'm guessing 10 years.

ChatGPT-3

It keeps blowing me away. Haven't gotten access to GPT-4 yet. Bah! But just look at this stuff:




 Thinking of making a couple of easy language model games. Hmm.

Free bot trading required

See if you can spot the time when Binance turned on fees on BTC/USDT, and turned them off on BTC/TUSD.


Trading volume instantly up by a factor of 100. My bot "Arrow" had been doing so well for the 11 days it was allowed to run: 4 - 55% per day! No more such good stuff, unforch.

Will have to make do with the crappy BTCTUSD instead. In a few weeks I expect volume to go way up, as more and more HFT bots crave free trades. When it's high enough, they'll turn fees on again. Murmur...

Incontinetia Buttocks

Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get me. As usual, here's backtesting of my latest and greatest trading strat:


Note that soon after I launched comes the first "recession." All the other downhill slopes are harsh, but this last one is more gradually inching down — although there's not much price action.

This is not the first time this has happened.

The question is if my backtesting is overly precise. Like overfitting for an ANN. Or if my paranoia isn't paranoia at all.

My one minute trader is doing a lot better now though, since it has five years worth of high quality data. But lately it's just been holding steady (if you think +90%/-35% is steady, that is).

Whereas this one second trader has a much shorter period, albeit a lot more data. Six months price data is 15,552,000 candles.

So the question is if I scrap this idea, or simply put it on hold until the time is right?

Hard to tell. When things are going well, I feel like Biggus. But now I feel more like Incontinentia. Since the exchange supply is lower than ever (both BTC and ETH), I think my Biggus times are coming back soon.

Ya struck spiritual gold alright!!!

Now I need to brag a bit. Since two days I'm beta testing "Arrow," my latest incarnation of Musk the Trading Bot. (Alpha version was three days ago, keep up!) To me, it's a monster of a high frequency trading.


Some stats:
  • Median time between trades is 50 seconds!
  • Since my shaky alpha testing started three days ago, it's performed 700+ trades!!
  • Since lunch today when I transferred in a small amount of money, it's traded 231,529.77 USD!!!
The largest Bitcoin order I ever placed (2 years ago, before getting rekt for the second time) was a gigantic one at 1.5 million USD! Shouldn't have done that.


Right I now only have 292 US, so no record-breaking order sizes quite yet. I'm optimistic though.

Soon I will/might make a Youtube tutorial on creating trading robots. I'm also considering starting a trading helper company where I can sell valuable tips to day traders or others making bots. I can't release my order positions, as the whales would crush me. But I could perhaps sell the info to those willing to pay a couple of bucks per month, and also release some low resolution data to the public domain.

Those things I wouldn't do to make money, and I'm not super-interested myself actually. But it has two perks: running a business and spirituality. The business part is easy, I'd love to sell something that people crave and can put to good use. The spiritual part might require some explanation.

Many apart from me dream of getting rich (even though we all know it's a really, really stupid goal). I think this (and ideas like it) could kickstart a spiritual revolution — when you see there's no point in having a surplus of income, you'll do one of two things:
  1. Turn away from material reductionism. It doesn't add value when you already have enough things.
  2. Kill yourself.
See. I told you. Either way spiritual. ;-/

PS. Since I started writing this post, Arrow has only done 9 trades. The market has cooled down. For now.

Struck gold?

I just need to figure out how this margin thing works, but apart from that it looks super duper!



About the author

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Gothenburg, Sweden